Who should win in the big four categories at the 2026 Grammys?

What a time to be experiencing the Grammys this year! Last year, I watched with my mom in our living room while my sister hated on every artist as I actively defended them. This year, I’ll be watching from a dorm room in Nashville with a couple friends who share my music taste at a (mainly) music school.

Here are the women (as a reminder, women are the focus of my blog) that I think will win each of the big four categories at the Grammys this year.

Album of the Year

Bad Bunny - Debí Tirar Más Fotos

Clipse, Pusha T & Malice - Let God Sort Em Out

Justin Bieber - Swag

Kendrick Lamar - GNX

Lady Gaga - Mayhem

Leon Thomas - Mutt

Sabrina Carpenter - Man’s Best Friend

Tyler, the Creator - Chromakopia

I would first like to preface that this one will not be going to a woman. I think Debí Tirar Más Fotos by Bad Bunny is the obvious winner. Bad Bunny has had a massive few years and is great at what he does, and this album has proven no different. Sabrina Carpenter, my runner-up, is similar in that sense, but the artists thrive in different worlds.

Carpenter, like Bad Bunny, has given a new meaning to relevancy. Man’s Best Friend was my personal favorite album of the year. The production is impeccable, there’s a good emotional spectrum, and there’s cohesion but also genre exploration. The only flaw is (sort of) a lack of theme when addressing the title and cover. As I’ve said in several pieces in which I’ve dissected this record, Carpenter has the right idea with the man-eater satirical energy seen on the cover, but is a bit too devastated for it to really be believable. I don’t think she should win this award over Bad Bunny, but it’s certainly a masterpiece.

The album cover for Man's Best Friend by Sabrina Carpenter

Song of the Year

Bad Bunny - "DTMF"

Billie Eilish - "Wildflower"

Doechii - "Anxiety"

Huntr/x - "Golden"

Kendrick Lamar & SZA - "Luther"

Lady Gaga - "Abracadabra"

Rosé & Bruno Mars - "Apt."

Sabrina Carpenter - "Manchild"

Of these contenders, I automatically eliminate “Anxiety” by Doechii. I am one of the many who does not like the interpolation of “Somebody That I Used to Know (feat. Kimbra)” (2011) by Gotye. On a less opinion-based note, I also eliminate “Golden” by Huntr/x. This award tends to go to songs with more profound messages and/or cultural impact (see “What Was I Made For?” by Billie Eilish, the 2024 winner, and “Not Like Us” by Kendrick Lamar, the 2025 winner). Other songs on this list are stronger in that field.

Speaking to profoundness, I would otherwise say that this award should go to “Wildflower” by Billie Eilish, but the timing of this nomination confuses me. This song was released in spring 2024. I’m not entirely sure what she did to make it eligible for this Grammy cycle. I suppose the song is still relevant, but “Song of the Year 2025” is a stretch.  

Similarly, “Manchild” by Sabrina Carpenter had cultural impact, but it was nothing like Kendrick Lamar’s winning track last year. Not even close.

Knowing what type of songs the Grammys typically honor with this award, I don’t think any of these songs are shoo-ins, but I predict that “DTMF” by Bad Bunny or “Apt.” by Rosé and Bruno Mars will win. Both had cultural impact, and besides, I could see Bad Bunny getting a sweep this year.

The album cover for Hit Me Hard and Soft by Billie Eilish, which "Wildflower" is on.

Record of the Year

Bad Bunny - "DTMF"

Billie Eilish - "Wildflower"

Chappell Roan - "The Subway"

Doechii - "Anxiety"

Kendrick Lamar & SZA - "Luther"

Lady Gaga - "Abracadabra"

Rosé & Bruno Mars - "Apt."

Sabrina Carpenter - "Manchild"

My adoration for “The Subway” is relentless. I was pushing Chappell Roan a lot with my predictions last year, and this has not changed. It’s no “Good Luck, Babe” in terms of production, but the vocal layering near the end of Roan’s latest summer hit takes me out. I would simply love for her to win this award.

The single cover for "The Subway" by Chappell Roan

Best New Artist

Addison Rae

Alex Warren

Katseye

Leon Thomas

Lola Young

The Marías

Olivia Dean

Sombr

This is by far the most enticing nomination list in the big four categories this year. Every single woman on this list could win, and I would think they deserved it.

Addison Rae’s debut album and tour have been a massive success. Her rise to pop stardom after years of being a TikTok influencer has been so fun to watch.

Katseye is an all-female “global girl group” between HYBE (a major K-pop agency) and the American Geffen Records. I love the idea of a global girl group winning, so I’m excited about this.

Lola Young is on the smaller end of these artists, but that’s never stopped anyone from winning this award. She’s very talented.

I’m most rooting for Olivia Dean. Her first two albums were impeccable and showed evolution in her writing. She’s jazzy, poppy, can do a good ballad, can do a good banger. She has the best energy and I’m glad to be able to say I began keeping up with her before her second album was released.

The album cover for The Art of Loving by Olivia Dean

Happy Grammy day, to you and yours!